I didn't say shrink-wrap was only good for 20 years. What I did say is that 20 years from now (i.e. in some cases 50 years from when the games were first manufactured), I think it's very unlikely you will find any mint sealed games. I mean all you have to do is talk to any toy collector who collects toys from the 1950s and ask if they have ever seen a non-yellowed/non-decaying sealed cardboard box item. They haven't. Save batteries and eproms have a limited lifespan whether you want to believe it or not. How many non-Phoenixed original CPS-2 boards are still working with the original battery? Not many. In fact, I collect CPS-2 boards and I have never seen one that has never had the battery replaced that is still ok. Batteries and eproms have a limited life, no matter how well they are stored.

As for grading, just because something gets a 90 today doesn't mean if it starts to decay it's still a 90. There are plenty of graded comics that have to be re-graded over time simply because they start to brown or are stored improperly after grading. I mean, if you have true archival storage (a dark, climate and humidity controlled acid and pollution free environment), perhaps you can extend the lives of your sealed games slightly. I just don't think any collector other than the guy that runs Neo Geo.com allegedly has such a system.

I don't know if common games will be more valuable than truly rare ones. The fact remains that there were millions of Zeldas manufactured and there are probably hundreds of thousands of complete copies still out there, thousands of sealed ones and who knows how many loose ones. That's more than enough for the likely number of collectors out there well into the future. Ultimately, not everyone will want sealed, especially if they start seeing things decay over time. I also don't buy that even hardcore collectors will continue to pay thousands of dollars for sealed copies unless it becomes very clear that there are only a few of that particular game in that condition. Even then, as decay sets in, demand will wane.

I agree with you that anything could happen, but as someone who has been involved in collecting many things over the years, I just don't think video games are exempt from the same factors that impact other hobbies including people moving on to other things, a lack of nostalgia as people age and die and younger collectors move in and most importantly, a societal shift towards owning fewer physical items. If you had told me five years ago the DVD business would collapse because people were happier with Netflix and downloads/streaming, I would have laughed at you. Yet, here we are with DVD and Blu Ray sales being a small percentage of what they were at their peak. Video games will be no different. You will always have collectors, but at some point it won't be at the level it is today and most people will be happy having near perfect digital copies of the games to play rather than filling their homes with the physical originals.

Quote Originally Posted by jonebone View Post
You realize that many of these graded games are now 25+ years old at this point? But magically in another 20 years, the plastic will be so yellowed / brown / sticky that they look like big piles of crap? You can certainly have that opinion, but I think that's laughable at best. These games have survived for decades in poor climates like attics / basements / closets that are conducive to mold / mildew. Some games have surely come from smoking households as well, yet the smell is often worse than any yellowing.

Just reminds me of the whole "your save battery will only last 10 years" or "the EPROMs will only last 10 years", yet plenty of protos / arcades / save games still exist 25 years later. I'm not saying they'll last another 100 years with ease, but I am saying that these deterioration arguments are blown WAY out of proportion. If anything, it should urge you to collect more today, because getting a 90 or above on a VGA NES game could be difficult 50 years down the road if the wrap has deteriorated as you've speculated.

The other interesting point that I'd make, is that a Mint sealed Zelda will pass the value of a sealed Stadium Events one day. I'm of the belief that there are more favorites collectors... those who go after childhood favorites, or their favorite series. Most of the rare guys are just speculators who want to buy and flip in a year or two at a profit. It's just playing hot potato and at some point, someone gets stuck with it.

But Zeldas / Marios / etc. will always be in demand as long as Nintendo is alive. You are right, if Nintendo is pushed into bankruptcy by the evolving digital download market, then maybe NES would simply be a passing fad in the timeline of history. But even then, Nintendo can easily survive by just making their Zelda / Mario games digital downloads themselves, continuing demand for the first occurrence of the series.

It's a great discussion to have though. While I don't agree with many of your points, I at least acknowledge them. Hopefully you can at least acknowledge ours as well, even if you think we are delusional.