Recent NES black box sales

[Bojay1997]

Somethings fall fall in price but the most desirable pieces in top condition will continue to rise. Baseball cards and comics both had huge collapses but the top material is worth more than ever. Videogames are a part of our culture and have replaced just about every toy known with kids today. Never before has one item been such a force with children. In the 60's,70's and even the 80's there were several items that each held a share of children and their playtime. Today videogames hold a larger share of that playtime than any other item ever. Love it or hate it, I don't see big prices ever going away and for the top items it will only get worse.

We'll just have to disagree on this point. You're talking about mass market items that had print runs in the millions in many cases. People will be finding stashes of games for many, many years to come. Unlike old comics and baseball cards where distributors and to a greater extent regular people would have thrown them out because of the perception they were worthless and just had no purpose taking up space in a home or warehouse, it's a lot harder for someone to throw away old consoles and games. You can go to any swap meet or thrift store in the US and I guarantee you will find old video games. You can't say the same thing about baseball cards or comic books. Another part of it is that the general public is now aware that baseball cards and comics can be valuable. Despite Pawn Stars and a few other sources promoting the idea that video games are super valuable, I would argue that the general public has no idea of the current values and as such, they aren't digging through closets and attics to dump this stuff on the market just yet. Once video game collecting really gets mass publicity, there will be massive amounts of new stock discovered, I guarantee it.

As long as there are interested collectors, it's possible that prices will increase or at least remain stable. The problem right now is that stuff that really isn't all that rare is going for crazy amounts of money. Older and rarer stuff on platforms like the 2600 is either stable or has decreased in price. I believe it's because just like toys, video games are cyclical and depend on the personal experiences of the people who collect them. As more and more 2600 collectors age and loose interest, prices will continue to fall. The same will happen with the NES because the reality is that Nintendo has carried forward very few of its older IPs other than the obvious ones like Mario, etc...There is simply little current connection to much of the rest of the NES library, so right now demand is being driven almost exclusively by adults who owned the NES as kids. That generation will age and die out eventually and the cycle will repeat.

[Buyatari]

We'll just have to disagree on this point. You're talking about mass market items that had print runs in the millions in many cases. People will be finding stashes of games for many, many years to come. Unlike old comics and baseball cards where distributors and to a greater extent regular people would have thrown them out because of the perception they were worthless and just had no purpose taking up space in a home or warehouse, it's a lot harder for someone to throw away old consoles and games. You can go to any swap meet or thrift store in the US and I guarantee you will find old video games. You can't say the same thing about baseball cards or comic books. Another part of it is that the general public is now aware that baseball cards and comics can be valuable. Despite Pawn Stars and a few other sources promoting the idea that video games are super valuable, I would argue that the general public has no idea of the current values and as such, they aren't digging through closets and attics to dump this stuff on the market just yet. Once video game collecting really gets mass publicity, there will be massive amounts of new stock discovered, I guarantee it.

As long as there are interested collectors, it's possible that prices will increase or at least remain stable. The problem right now is that stuff that really isn't all that rare is going for crazy amounts of money. Older and rarer stuff on platforms like the 2600 is either stable or has decreased in price. I believe it's because just like toys, video games are cyclical and depend on the personal experiences of the people who collect them. As more and more 2600 collectors age and loose interest, prices will continue to fall. The same will happen with the NES because the reality is that Nintendo has carried forward very few of its older IPs other than the obvious ones like Mario, etc...There is simply little current connection to much of the rest of the NES library, so right now demand is being driven almost exclusively by adults who owned the NES as kids. That generation will age and die out eventually and the cycle will repeat.

I'm not saying the mass produced items of today will go up and up. What I am saying is that because there are mass produced items a market will exist for the rarest most desirable items of the past. Few people want Action Comics #1 because they remember reading it as a child. They want it because Superman has become an icon and the character lives on in movies and popular culture. I would argue that videogames today have a bigger impact on children and society than combic books ever had. They have a huge share of the marketplace and you will meet few people young or old who will have no idea who Mario or Sonic are.

Many 2600 items have fallen in price and I'd expect to continue to see some of this except for the rarest and most desirable items in top condition. I wouldn't ever worry about losing value on a complete Eli's Ladder.

[Bojay1997]

I'm not saying the mass produced items of today will go up and up. What I am saying is that because there are mass produced items a market will exist for the rarest most desirable items of the past. Few people want Action Comics #1 because they remember reading it as a child. They want it because Superman has become an icon and the character lives on in movies and popular culture. I would argue that videogames today have a bigger impact on children and society than combic books ever had. They have a huge share of the marketplace and you will meet few people young or old who will have no idea who Mario or Sonic are.

Many 2600 items have fallen in price and I'd expect to continue to see some of this except for the rarest and most desirable items in top condition. I wouldn't ever worry about losing value on a complete Eli's Ladder.

I agree, but if you look at what is commanding the highest prices on the NES right now, it's not necessarily the "rarest" games, it's common stuff in the mintiest sealed condition. I find it hard to believe that games of that type are going to continue to go beyond the thousands of dollars they are currently commanding. There are just too many copies out there and not enough collectors with those kinds of funds long term. Indeed, unlike comics and baseball cards, the combination of acidic plastics, metals and paper will likely result in even properly stored video games not having the longevity of comics or baseball cards simply because there is no real means of preserving a sealed game long term. I would suspect that people will be much more interested in mint complete copies over time simply because the components can be separated and individually preserved.

I would also note that video games started to be collected much earlier in relative terms than baseball cards or comics. Most of the research I have read indicates that serious comic book collecting didn't really start until the early 1970s, some 40 years after the "modern" comic books of the 1930s were released. It took another decade or so for comic collecting to go truly mainstream and by the 90s, it had largely slowed back down again to a fraction of the 1980s levels. In video games, it took maybe half as long meaning that for at least half of the history of video games, people have been collecting them and keeping them pretty well preserved. That means there is a lot out there in really nice shape even if there are fewer video game collectors than comic collectors overall.

I have no doubt that video games have had a significant societal impact, but that doesn't necessarily mean all or even most of those kids will grow up to be collectors. With digital versions of older games widely available and lots of other entertainment options out there, fewer people owning their own homes resulting in less space for collectibles and frankly, most gamers just not caring much about older games, the pump is primed for a pricing correction once this current bubble bursts.

[Buyatari]

I agree, but if you look at what is commanding the highest prices on the NES right now, it's not necessarily the "rarest" games, it's common stuff in the mintiest sealed condition. I find it hard to believe that games of that type are going to continue to go beyond the thousands of dollars they are currently commanding. There are just too many copies out there and not enough collectors with those kinds of funds long term. Indeed, unlike comics and baseball cards, the combination of acidic plastics, metals and paper will likely result in even properly stored video games not having the longevity of comics or baseball cards simply because there is no real means of preserving a sealed game long term. I would suspect that people will be much more interested in mint complete copies over time simply because the components can be separated and individually preserved.

I would also note that video games started to be collected much earlier in relative terms than baseball cards or comics. Most of the research I have read indicates that serious comic book collecting didn't really start until the early 1970s, some 40 years after the "modern" comic books of the 1930s were released. It took another decade or so for comic collecting to go truly mainstream and by the 90s, it had largely slowed back down again to a fraction of the 1980s levels. In video games, it took maybe half as long meaning that for at least half of the history of video games, people have been collecting them and keeping them pretty well preserved. That means there is a lot out there in really nice shape even if there are fewer video game collectors than comic collectors overall.

I have no doubt that video games have had a significant societal impact, but that doesn't necessarily mean all or even most of those kids will grow up to be collectors. With digital versions of older games widely available and lots of other entertainment options out there, fewer people owning their own homes resulting in less space for collectibles and frankly, most gamers just not caring much about older games, the pump is primed for a pricing correction once this current bubble bursts.

No it doesn't mean all those kids will grow up to be collectors but I suspect there are more potential videogame collectors than there are for comicbooks and baseball cards. I would guess that more kids play Marvel Alliance than read Xmen combic books and do kids even buy baseball cards anymore?

A few of the NES black box games are common to find. Pinball and Golf for example could easily crash but some of those others with 1st pressings are insanely rare to find sealed. Any blackbox with a flagship character like Mario or Donkey Kong should be just fine no matter what the price is currently.

Check ebay right now and count how many copies of Amazing Spiderman #1 are for sale right now. It is fairly common with multiple copies for sale at any given moment. Still a top graded copy can break 100k and even lower graded copies do pretty well from year after year. An item doesn't have to be insanely rare if it is a desired item esp if in is in top condition.

[Bojay1997]

No it doesn't mean all those kids will grow up to be collectors but I suspect there are more potential videogame collectors than there are for comicbooks and baseball cards. I would guess that more kids play Marvel Alliance than read Xmen combic books and do kids even buy baseball cards anymore?

A few of the NES black box games are common to find. Pinball and Golf for example could easily crash but some of those others with 1st pressings are insanely rare to find sealed. Any blackbox with a flagship character like Mario or Donkey Kong should be just fine no matter what the price is currently.

Check ebay right now and count how many copies of Amazing Spiderman #1 are for sale right now. It is fairly common with multiple copies for sale at any given moment. Still a top graded copy can break 100k and even lower graded copies do pretty well from year after year. An item doesn't have to be insanely rare if it is a desired item esp if in is in top condition.

I don't know about that. My five year old nephew plays video games now, but everything he has ever played has been on an iPad and has never come on physical media. He also could care less about Mario since most of his TV watching involves stuff on various Disney channels and who knows if he will ever get a 3DS or WiiU. With mobile devices rapidly becoming equal in capabilities to dedicated portables, I suspect within one more generation Nintendo and other companies will simply be in the software business if they even exist at all. I also think the next generation of gamers is going to be far less into collecting physical "stuff" the same way current consumers have significantly cut back on buying new release DVDs and PC gamers have largely adopted digital downloading for new game purchases. I mean how many people collect CDs or records today? It's a lot less than five or ten years ago and considering most people are music fans of one sort or another, it would seem like the population of music collectors would be growing, but as a vinyl collector myself, I can tell you for certain that's not the case at all.

Sealed games are something that won't continue to appreciate long term simply because they decay over time. Have you ever seen old records or even toys with shrink wrap older than a few decades? They have a yellow or brown tinge and the paper and colors start to discolor. It's just not a permanent thing no matter how carefully you try to protect it. I myself am guilty of being a sealed collector, but I would never pay a premium for sealed stuff simply because I know it can't last over the long haul. People spending thousands for graded games are in for a sad reality 20 years from now when their plastic cases are filled with brown and sticky wrap and boxes that have begun to cave in. There's a reason libraries and museums which house software collections insist on removing the wrap. Plastic is very volatile because ultimately it's a petroleum product and it reacts with paper, glue, dyes, metal, etc...all of which are used in the printing and manufacturing processes for cartridge and disc based video games.

[Buyatari]

I don't know about that. My five year old nephew plays video games now, but everything he has ever played has been on an iPad and has never come on physical media. He also could care less about Mario since most of his TV watching involves stuff on various Disney channels and who knows if he will ever get a 3DS or WiiU. With mobile devices rapidly becoming equal in capabilities to dedicated portables, I suspect within one more generation Nintendo and other companies will simply be in the software business if they even exist at all. I also think the next generation of gamers is going to be far less into collecting physical "stuff" the same way current consumers have significantly cut back on buying new release DVDs and PC gamers have largely adopted digital downloading for new game purchases. I mean how many people collect CDs or records today? It's a lot less than five or ten years ago and considering most people are music fans of one sort or another, it would seem like the population of music collectors would be growing, but as a vinyl collector myself, I can tell you for certain that's not the case at all.

Sealed games are something that won't continue to appreciate long term simply because they decay over time. Have you ever seen old records or even toys with shrink wrap older than a few decades? They have a yellow or brown tinge and the paper and colors start to discolor. It's just not a permanent thing no matter how carefully you try to protect it. I myself am guilty of being a sealed collector, but I would never pay a premium for sealed stuff simply because I know it can't last over the long haul. People spending thousands for graded games are in for a sad reality 20 years from now when their plastic cases are filled with brown and sticky wrap and boxes that have begun to cave in. There's a reason libraries and museums which house software collections insist on removing the wrap. Plastic is very volatile because ultimately it's a petroleum product and it reacts with paper, glue, dyes, metal, etc...all of which are used in the printing and manufacturing processes for cartridge and disc based video games.

It doesn't matter what type of gaming he does. I would guess he plays more games than he reads comic books or flips baseball cards etc. It won't matter if consoles go by the way side. I feel that anyone interested in videogame history will be interested in the originals.

Speaking of losing out to digital media here is an article on a famous collectable Beatles record. I've linked the article below but here is the part I think you may find the most interesting.

So exactly how much are these butcher cover albums worth?: The 2007 (6th) edition of Price Guide For The Beatles American Records by Perry Cox and Frank Daniels gives us the following figures:

1) First state mono in near mint condition: $4000
2) First state mono promotional copy in near mint condition (w/Promotional Copy – Not For Sale stamp): $5000
3) First state stereo copy in near mint condition: $12,000
4) Second state (paste-over) mono copy in near mint condition: $800
5) Second state (paste-over) stereo copy in near mint condition: $1500
6) Third state (peeled) mono copy in near mint condition: $800
7) Third state (peeled) stereo copy in near mint condition: $1500

Of course, these figures are just guidelines, and to be honest, seem to me to be quite low in comparison with some recent sales I have seen. In the case of first and second state copies, if the albums are still sealed (i.e. unopened) in their original shrink wrap they can bring several times the price listed above.

http://www.thebeatlesrarity.com/2011...butcher-cover/


----edit-------

Here is a related article on a stash of 24 sealed butcher albums that were discovered. I am not a record collector but it seems that with this particular issue having it still sealed is a good thing not a bad thing.

Over the years there have been many great finds for Beatles record collectors, but probably the most significant was the discovery ten years ago of what ended up to be twenty-four original sealed first state Butcher cover albums.

It's hard to believe that it's been 8 years since the above information was written. It may be even harder to believe that during this time the value of premium butcher covers has more than tripled. The market value of the 24 Livingston butcher covers is now approaching an astonishing one million dollars!! Record prices of $85,000 for a stereo copy and $44,000 were set a couple of years ago. It looks like the sky is going to be the limit...

http://www.rarebeatles.com/album2/discog/livleter.htm

[Bojay1997]

It doesn't matter what type of gaming he does. I would guess he plays more games than he reads comic books or flips baseball cards etc. It won't matter if consoles go by the way side. I feel that anyone interested in videogame history will be interested in the originals.

Speaking of losing out to digital media here is an article on a famous collectable Beatles record. I've linked the article below but here is the part I think you may find the most interesting.



http://www.thebeatlesrarity.com/2011...butcher-cover/

But how many gamers really care about the history of games enough to go through the work of tracking down the original console and games? How willing are they going to be to do the work and spend the money to do so if the games are easily downloaded for low cost in near perfect versions? I'm sorry, but I know a lot of video game collectors nowadays who are open to buying digital copies because of money and more importantly space. Not everyone cares about physically inserting a cartridge or looking at a box or label.

My nephew actually watches more TV than anything else and he plays a lot of sports and builds legos and plays with lots of different action figures and other toys, just like a lot of kids. Video games are important and lots of kids play them, but it's not even close to the level it was when I was a kid when there was no such thing as hundreds of channels, DVDs, streaming media, the Internet and dozens of other things for even very young kids to do. Heck, most parents I know are steering their kids into other activities nowadays and frankly I know more parents that regularly play video games than their kids.

On the Beatles stuff, I'm not seeing the relevance. The Butcher Cover was not a mass produced item that was widely available. It's value is derived almost exclusively from its rarity and how out of character it seemed with the previous images of the band and what mainstream artists were putting on picture covers in that era. Similarly, the vast majority of even first pressing Beatles albums are not crazy valuable simply because so many were pressed and the music can still be purchased in a form identical to or in some cases better than it's original release format for a fraction of what it cost new. It doesn't change the fact that people aren't exactly flocking to the vinyl collecting hobby nor are masses of new Beatles collectors coming on the scene. I would also note that when I was collecting Beatles stuff and vinyl, the Butcher Cover was always in the thousands of dollars for a nice copy. It's not like these values suddenly exploded and they have certainly seen ups and downs in the past 20 years. I also have significant doubts that shrink wrap is going to last for decades, especially since most collectors don't have anything nearing a stable climate controlled environment in which to store their sealed items.

Like I said, I have no doubt that over time there will be some truly rare and valuable video games, but if you're considering this momentary spike in the value of a very small set of NES games mostly resulting from a handful of collectors with more money than sense to be the start of continuing growth in pricing, I am positive you are going to be very disappointed in a few years.

[jonebone]

People spending thousands for graded games are in for a sad reality 20 years from now when their plastic cases are filled with brown and sticky wrap and boxes that have begun to cave in. There's a reason libraries and museums which house software collections insist on removing the wrap. Plastic is very volatile because ultimately it's a petroleum product and it reacts with paper, glue, dyes, metal, etc...all of which are used in the printing and manufacturing processes for cartridge and disc based video games.

You realize that many of these graded games are now 25+ years old at this point? But magically in another 20 years, the plastic will be so yellowed / brown / sticky that they look like big piles of crap? You can certainly have that opinion, but I think that's laughable at best. These games have survived for decades in poor climates like attics / basements / closets that are conducive to mold / mildew. Some games have surely come from smoking households as well, yet the smell is often worse than any yellowing.

Just reminds me of the whole "your save battery will only last 10 years" or "the EPROMs will only last 10 years", yet plenty of protos / arcades / save games still exist 25 years later. I'm not saying they'll last another 100 years with ease, but I am saying that these deterioration arguments are blown WAY out of proportion. If anything, it should urge you to collect more today, because getting a 90 or above on a VGA NES game could be difficult 50 years down the road if the wrap has deteriorated as you've speculated.

The other interesting point that I'd make, is that a Mint sealed Zelda will pass the value of a sealed Stadium Events one day. I'm of the belief that there are more favorites collectors... those who go after childhood favorites, or their favorite series. Most of the rare guys are just speculators who want to buy and flip in a year or two at a profit. It's just playing hot potato and at some point, someone gets stuck with it.

But Zeldas / Marios / etc. will always be in demand as long as Nintendo is alive. You are right, if Nintendo is pushed into bankruptcy by the evolving digital download market, then maybe NES would simply be a passing fad in the timeline of history. But even then, Nintendo can easily survive by just making their Zelda / Mario games digital downloads themselves, continuing demand for the first occurrence of the series.

It's a great discussion to have though. While I don't agree with many of your points, I at least acknowledge them. Hopefully you can at least acknowledge ours as well, even if you think we are delusional.

[Bojay1997]

I didn't say shrink-wrap was only good for 20 years. What I did say is that 20 years from now (i.e. in some cases 50 years from when the games were first manufactured), I think it's very unlikely you will find any mint sealed games. I mean all you have to do is talk to any toy collector who collects toys from the 1950s and ask if they have ever seen a non-yellowed/non-decaying sealed cardboard box item. They haven't. Save batteries and eproms have a limited lifespan whether you want to believe it or not. How many non-Phoenixed original CPS-2 boards are still working with the original battery? Not many. In fact, I collect CPS-2 boards and I have never seen one that has never had the battery replaced that is still ok. Batteries and eproms have a limited life, no matter how well they are stored.

As for grading, just because something gets a 90 today doesn't mean if it starts to decay it's still a 90. There are plenty of graded comics that have to be re-graded over time simply because they start to brown or are stored improperly after grading. I mean, if you have true archival storage (a dark, climate and humidity controlled acid and pollution free environment), perhaps you can extend the lives of your sealed games slightly. I just don't think any collector other than the guy that runs Neo Geo.com allegedly has such a system.

I don't know if common games will be more valuable than truly rare ones. The fact remains that there were millions of Zeldas manufactured and there are probably hundreds of thousands of complete copies still out there, thousands of sealed ones and who knows how many loose ones. That's more than enough for the likely number of collectors out there well into the future. Ultimately, not everyone will want sealed, especially if they start seeing things decay over time. I also don't buy that even hardcore collectors will continue to pay thousands of dollars for sealed copies unless it becomes very clear that there are only a few of that particular game in that condition. Even then, as decay sets in, demand will wane.

I agree with you that anything could happen, but as someone who has been involved in collecting many things over the years, I just don't think video games are exempt from the same factors that impact other hobbies including people moving on to other things, a lack of nostalgia as people age and die and younger collectors move in and most importantly, a societal shift towards owning fewer physical items. If you had told me five years ago the DVD business would collapse because people were happier with Netflix and downloads/streaming, I would have laughed at you. Yet, here we are with DVD and Blu Ray sales being a small percentage of what they were at their peak. Video games will be no different. You will always have collectors, but at some point it won't be at the level it is today and most people will be happy having near perfect digital copies of the games to play rather than filling their homes with the physical originals.

You realize that many of these graded games are now 25+ years old at this point? But magically in another 20 years, the plastic will be so yellowed / brown / sticky that they look like big piles of crap? You can certainly have that opinion, but I think that's laughable at best. These games have survived for decades in poor climates like attics / basements / closets that are conducive to mold / mildew. Some games have surely come from smoking households as well, yet the smell is often worse than any yellowing.

Just reminds me of the whole "your save battery will only last 10 years" or "the EPROMs will only last 10 years", yet plenty of protos / arcades / save games still exist 25 years later. I'm not saying they'll last another 100 years with ease, but I am saying that these deterioration arguments are blown WAY out of proportion. If anything, it should urge you to collect more today, because getting a 90 or above on a VGA NES game could be difficult 50 years down the road if the wrap has deteriorated as you've speculated.

The other interesting point that I'd make, is that a Mint sealed Zelda will pass the value of a sealed Stadium Events one day. I'm of the belief that there are more favorites collectors... those who go after childhood favorites, or their favorite series. Most of the rare guys are just speculators who want to buy and flip in a year or two at a profit. It's just playing hot potato and at some point, someone gets stuck with it.

But Zeldas / Marios / etc. will always be in demand as long as Nintendo is alive. You are right, if Nintendo is pushed into bankruptcy by the evolving digital download market, then maybe NES would simply be a passing fad in the timeline of history. But even then, Nintendo can easily survive by just making their Zelda / Mario games digital downloads themselves, continuing demand for the first occurrence of the series.

It's a great discussion to have though. While I don't agree with many of your points, I at least acknowledge them. Hopefully you can at least acknowledge ours as well, even if you think we are delusional.