Recent NES black box sales

[Bojay1997]

All you are talking about is a self-contained bubble, not a true market. You're essentially just moving the decimal point in your head reasoning that because you sold something for $10K, it makes it reasonable to also pay $10K for something. It's like the gambler who loses his life savings but figures he had a good run because he made millions over the years. The same thing happened with comics in the 1980s. People were scooping up new issues every week and flipping them a month or two later for 3-5 times cover price only to turn around and spend that money on equaly overpriced comics being sold by other collectors or shops. The same thing happened in baseball cards in the 80s and action figures. There is zero chance something like that can last. For a collectible market to thrive, you need to have long term fundamentals like reasonable certainly about supply, consistent or measureable demand and a proximity of perceived value to market pricing. These are mass produced items, not unique pieces of art or even things manufactured fifty years ago before anyone had any conception of collecting pop culture items. Paying thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars for a video game which is not unique in any way is not something that is tied to real market conditions. I'm not saying you can't make money flipping games, obviously you and a number of other people do. All I'm saying is that if you're planning on retiring on your collection, you're probably in for a real shock down the road.

I also disagree that grading is "vastly embraced". If you look at sealed VGA auctions, it's always a matter of several dozen of the same people bidding on every item. It's the same people who hang out on the sealed game forum and Nintendoage. You certainly don't see many sealed Atari collectors or even that many sealed disc based collectors embracing VGA, it's almost all NES people. It's also not like hundreds of new VGA collectors are entering the market every day and VGA graded games are still only a very tiny proportion of all Ebay sealed video game auctions and a miniscule proportion of all game auctions period.

You're right, it is long-term collectors who don't embrace VGA. It's because we've been around long enough to understand the makings of a bubble and that things go up and down over time. Newer collectors come and go and ultimately, they overpay for stuff and end up getting burned when real life catches up and their credit card is maxed out and all they have is a small stack of games encased in plastic which are worth less than what they overpaid for them. How many 1980s comic collectors do you think have been able to take an early retirement by selling their collection? I sure don't know any, of course I was collecting 1960s comics in the 1980s, so while I'm not rich as a result, I certainly have a very nice collection that is also stable or growing in value over time.

1) People are definitely limited by money, and obviously everyone won't go after the highest grade possible. However, everyone certainly sets a floor of what is acceptable. In terms of VGA, many people are setting the floor at 85+, which is the bare minimum for Gold Level. Even such, when you are talking about the highest confirmed grade, you only need two people that want it badly, to send the price out of control. Or as we're seeing with these Black Box sales, all you need to do is name your price, and then one person may bite.

And sealed is of course an acquired taste for most people... as I started out primarily a CIB guy. I still am a CIB guy, but go sealed on my favorites or when I find a bargain.

2) Population reports are always accurate as they state exactly what is graded right now. It is up to you as a collector to determine if it's an abundant game and the highest confirmed grade means much. Highest confirmed grade on Win Lose or Draw is obviously not as meaningful as highest confirmed grade on Donkey Kong Math.

As far as grading being embraced, it is vastly more accepted now than several years ago. I know because I was a VGA basher myself. You must also remember that is is more than just grading, it is authentication. It has already saved me from owning a Mega Man 1 NES reseal, Halo First print reseal, and a Legend of Zelda Wind Waker reseal. As you get new guys coming into this hobby with untrained eyes, it is very realistic to think that they would want VGA items to eliminate the real vs reseal headaches. Most of VGA critics are old-timers like yourself, while newcomers welcome it with open arms. And guess which one drives values in the hobby? New guys.

3) You don't have to make $10k income to have a $10k game. All you have to find is a Mint game that grades well, near the top of the population report, and you'll be rewarded generously. You get a few thousand and wow, now you're a buyer of something you couldn't afford. There's no investment at all, you just need a good VGA eye. You can buy a game at an all-time high today, but if it grades MINT at the top of the population report, you'll have INSANE offers coming your way. You won't believe it until you see it and do it yourself. I see it happen all the time... I know of a Zelda OOT V-Seam that sold on ebay for $700, graded 90, and that guy has already declined offers of very close to $10k.

And the best (or worst) part of these VGA sales, is that the money gets reciculated into the hobby, driving values farther. If someone sells a game for $20k, what do you think they do with that money? Use it to buy other wants of course (and maybe save some or spend some on other life expenses). That recirculation of the money puts more and more money into the hobby, and drives values even higher.

"Investments" apply to items you have to buy and hold, like a rare cart or rare CIB. It's a brutal reality, but if you have a VGA eye, there is no waiting. It really is as simple as buy Mint ungraded, grade at a high level, and profit thousands of dollars. Believe me, I agree that these valuations are absurd as well (I've still never spent over $600 for any one sealed game), but I'm at least smart enough to use the system to my advantage. I won't pay those values, but I sure as hell will take it if someone wants to buy something off me. Still prefer to trade though...