Who knows? Society has gotten it in their heads that cartridges are prohibitively expensive, but new technologies are constantly emerging.
I, for one, would love to see an MRAM based system. Super fast, super reliable, and quite possibly, super small (physically, that is). Obviously, it'll be a while before the 4.7GB capacity is feasible in a managable size (I'm think the size of compact flash card) , but when it is...dayum
Simple answer is no, and heres why. It's due to the size of the game, oh sure I give you the fact that larger capisty soild state memory is getting smaller. But the games when they started out were just a few bytes, but now they need to be measured in gigs.
There's no question that high-speed bandwidth for all of America is at least a decade down the road. But in many urban settings, high-speed is right here, right now.Originally Posted by Raedon
Time will tell, though I think you are completely on the wrong track.
People LOVE having that item in their hands that says, "Your Game" You are looking into a world were bandwidth flows like the rivers for FREE and that is WAY off.
Anyone who's ever downloaded a ROM or an ISO--and that's the majority of people on this forum--has proven that he doesn't care about storage media. All he wanted was the data, to use on a PC or Xbox or Palm or GBA emu. Maybe it's because he couldn't afford the real game, or because he was just curious about how the game played. Doesn't matter.
The music industry has found out, the hard way, that people prefer the convenience of pure data. My friend has a finger-sized MP3 player that can hold hours and hours of music. I have a GBA flashcard that can hold dozens of NES games. My friend doesn't need to tote around dozens of CDs, and I don't need to tote around dozens of NES carts and a cheesy Hong Kong NES "portable."
One of Xbox Live's pending features is the ability to download entire classic games onto the Xbox, as part of the subscription package. A direct response to Xbox emus? No doubt. But also another indicator of the future.
-- Z.
I think the industry will come back to carts for several reasons
Moving parts break. Moving parts are expensive. Solid state is where it's at.
Memory won't be chips and boards inthe future. There is already a tech that allows a specialized ink jet printer to print circuits. Eventually this will allow the cases to contain the electronics. No boards or chips, the circuits will be integral to the plastic. Imagine a HuCard that is 100% memory. Compact, huge storage capabilities, fast access, cheaply manufactured. Paradise.
There's no reason why we can't still use memory cards with a solid state cart. Actually I think it preferable to dying batteries.
I don't think we'll move to a medialess distribution model. Piracy would be the biggest problem with that system. I can't imagine it would be very hard at all. People also trade games with eachother, often not for other games. Probably not possible without any media.
i dont know but i sure the hell hope they advance past these freakin cds!! "Disk read error" -throws ps2 out window...
Midwest
My thought on the future of gaming media is NO media at all. Sad to say, but I believe we'll be moving to game systems that will have some sort of internal HD that will store the games. Now that high speed connections are everywhere, and will most definitely progress in speed, these new game consoles will simply attach to your high speed connection and download the game of your choice...paid via credit card of course. Perhaps they will still sell some sort of temporary media to transfer your game to the console... a "works only once" deal somewhat like the old "Divx" (not to be confused with the DivX codec) movies. The game will be transferred to the internal memory and that will be that. From there maybe they'll create add-on hard drives for the console, when you get low on space. Well, at least that is where I think it may be going. So much for showing off your game collection if this happens!
"Would be"? Digital theft has always been a major issue. Computer games have been relentlessly pirated for 25 years, and there were even primitive ways of pirating Atari 2600 carts. (It wasn't 'til the SNES/Genesis era that console piracy really took off, though.)
And we're ALREADY moving into a content-centric gaming world: Xbox Live downloadable content, Phantom, PC shareware. The first steps have already been taken.
-- Z.
that's absolutely false man, yes, i have downloaded roms, but i always also wanted to have the real thing
the two reasons you mentioned for downloading the roms are exactly the reason why you are wrong! even if games would be available per download instead of media people would still download illegals roms! people do NOT download roms because they prefer having a file instead of a cart/cd, they do download them because they are not able to buy the cart/cd (too expensive, import, too rare...) or do not want to buy it at all >> conclusion: they wouldn't buy it per download either
-Jan
So why did you download the ROM? Because you couldn't afford the real thing. What if downloading a game in its pure-data form was considerably cheaper than paying for the same game on a cart/CD/DVD? Would you then be more likely to buy it? Or are you still fixated on the storage medium?
Well, of course they will. Piracy has existed since the dawn of digital data. The point is to give people a legitimate alternative. Rampant music piracy didn't stop Apple from launching iTunes.the two reasons you mentioned for downloading the roms are exactly the reason why you are wrong! even if games would be available per download instead of media people would still download illegals roms!
Just because pirate-bitches will always do their thing doesn't mean that technology should stop advancing. It just means game companies will need to continue fighting piracy, as they always have.people do NOT download roms because they prefer having a file instead of a cart/cd, they do download them because they are not able to buy the cart/cd (too expensive, import, too rare...) or do not want to buy it at all >> conclusion: they wouldn't buy it per download either
Sony has done exceedingly well with the PS2, making it very complicated and/or hardware-abusive to "mod" a system. Set-top boxes will have similar protections against running pirated/copied content.
I'm not saying that carts don't have any appeal from a collector's or gamer's POV. They're awesome in that regard. It's just that the future (and, depending on your POV, the present) is game-as-data, not game-as-cart.
-- Z.
Yes, would be, because I don't think we are moving to a no media system."Would be"? Digital theft has always been a major issue. Computer games have been relentlessly pirated for 25 years, and there were even primitive ways of pirating Atari 2600 carts. (It wasn't 'til the SNES/Genesis era that console piracy really took off, though.)
And we're ALREADY moving into a content-centric gaming world: Xbox Live downloadable content, Phantom, PC shareware. The first steps have already been taken.
-- Z.
And I disagree that we are already moving in that direction. Downloadable content has been available for many years, with shareware being available for ages now. All either of them are is a way to advertise. Neither has negatively affected game sales, indeed, games sales have only risen since their introduction.
The Phantom can not be used as an example yet, as it is the device testing these waters. It is the guinea pig. Even if it succeeds, however, we still won't see a shift to a medialess industry. Look at the music industry. Yes, you can download, for a price, a song, or even entire albums. Has the music industry stopped printing CDs? No. People are still buying CDs, even people who use services like iTunes. Why? The big reason is access. The other is value.
Not everybody has access to a High speed internet connection. Most people do not, in fact. Eventually, maybe everyone will, but not for some time. A great number of people do not have access to an internet connection at all. By switching to a medialess distribution model, you immediately decrease your potential number of buyers. There are still over 100 million people in the US without any form of internet access. Do you think Capitol, Geffen, Sony, or Nintendo will ignore those potential customers? No.
Let's look at value. I have a friend who regularly uses iTunes. Has downloaded a fair amount of songs and a few albums. Guess what. he still buys CDs. Why? Value. He uses iTunes for songs he wouldn't buy the whole CD for. Even singles are more expensive than one song on iTunes. However, when there is a band he likes, or a lot of songs on one CD he likes, he buys the CD. Why? Because CDs hold more value. CDs often come with liner notes, which may contain lyrics, pictures, all sorts of things. You can lend a CD to a friend who expresses interest in that band. You can rip the CD to listen to it on an MP3 device. By buying your music online, you loose most of it's extra value. Yes, you still hear the music, but only on your PC or MP3 device. It's inconvenient to listen to it on a stereo or in your car. CDs you just pop in and go.
Games will follow a similar line. Yes, either way you can play the game, but what if your net connection goes down? Can't lend that game to your friend for a week. No instruction manual. HD crash? Spend hours re-downloading all your games, hopefully. Want to play in a different room? Run a cable throughout the house, or buy some expensive wireless equipment. Want to trade a game you don't like to a friend for one he doesn't? Sorry. Want to take your system with you on vacation and play in a room with no net access? Sorry. Want to build a system into your car? (people do it
:P ) Nope. By moving to a medialess model you loose all those little extras that come with having the game.
Here's another reason why I think we won't go medialess. Time. Even with a high speed internet connection, download times will be very high. Want to download Vice City? It'll be a few hours, at least. In that time I can run to Gamestop, buy it, shoot the shit with the clerk, drive home, and play it for an hour. Plus, while at Gamestop, I'll see countless other games, one of which might catch my eye. And that's a good reason for the industry to keep media in and of itself.
PC game sales have gone into the toilet in recent years, with a couple of megahits and plenty of bombs. There were rumors that a major game retailer was going to drop PC games because sales were so poor.
Are these poor sales because of piracy, or the nonstop upgrades that PC gaming requires, or that all the good developers are focusing on consoles, or that many PC games are distributed via shareware, thus cutting out the retail middleman? Depends on whom you ask.
Downloadable content certainly isn't considered "a way to advertise" by Microsoft, which is expanding its Xbox Live service to provide classic games for download. That's not advertising--that's added value, and added incentive to subscribe to Xbox Live. Today, it's complete classic games, and extra levels for modern games; tomorrow, it's complete modern games.
The Sega Channel proved the feasibility of a game-download subscription service a decade ago, so the Phantom isn't a guinea pig, but it's certainly promoting games-as-data on a grander scale than anything before it. The subscription model isn't that bad, although the amount and quality of content on offer will be the make-or-break factor.The Phantom can not be used as an example yet, as it is the device testing these waters. It is the guinea pig. Even if it succeeds, however, we still won't see a shift to a medialess industry. Look at the music industry. Yes, you can download, for a price, a song, or even entire albums. Has the music industry stopped printing CDs? No. People are still buying CDs, even people who use services like iTunes. Why? The big reason is access. The other is value.
People are buying CDs in ever-shrinking numbers, and the recording industry blames MP3s (and recordable CDs) as the reason. CD sales will continue to decrease as more and more consumers experience the joys of possessing music in digital form. CD companies are attempting to add value with bundled DVDs and Willy Wonka-esque "golden tickets," but it's not working.
I already touched upon this in an earlier post. There's no question that it will take time for high-speed Internet connections to be available in rural America. But in urban America, high-speed Internet access has already been established for quite some time. As the high-speed infrastructure continues to build between the coasts, sales of streaming and downloadable content will continue to increase. (Netflix is already preparing a video-on-demand service in anticipation of this.)Not everybody has access to a High speed internet connection. Most people do not, in fact. Eventually, maybe everyone will, but not for some time. A great number of people do not have access to an internet connection at all. By switching to a medialess distribution model, you immediately decrease your potential number of buyers. There are still over 100 million people in the US without any form of internet access. Do you think Capitol, Geffen, Sony, or Nintendo will ignore those potential customers? No.
In my experience, the music industry's core demographic of teenagers is all about singles. They don't care enough about liner notes to pack them in with their CD wallets; they just take the CDs themselves. If they want additional info, they visit an artist's website. Emailing an MP3 or sharing it via peer-to-peer network is easier than loaning out a CD, and you still have the MP3 for yourself.Let's look at value. I have a friend who regularly uses iTunes. Has downloaded a fair amount of songs and a few albums. Guess what. he still buys CDs. Why? Value. He uses iTunes for songs he wouldn't buy the whole CD for. Even singles are more expensive than one song on iTunes. However, when there is a band he likes, or a lot of songs on one CD he likes, he buys the CD. Why? Because CDs hold more value. CDs often come with liner notes, which may contain lyrics, pictures, all sorts of things. You can lend a CD to a friend who expresses interest in that band. You can rip the CD to listen to it on an MP3 device. By buying your music online, you loose most of it's extra value. Yes, you still hear the music, but only on your PC or MP3 device. It's inconvenient to listen to it on a stereo or in your car. CDs you just pop in and go.
MP3 car stereos are more plentiful and affordable than ever. You can pop in a burned CD filled with MP3s, or (with some decks) a memory stick. There's nothing inconvenient about the process at all.
Broken net connections are an inconvenience, but there are inconveniences involved with traditional storage media as well. For example, I've received several scratched-to-hell DVDs from Netflix, a problem I could have avoided if I'd downloaded the movie as pure data.Games will follow a similar line. Yes, either way you can play the game, but what if your net connection goes down? Can't lend that game to your friend for a week. No instruction manual. HD crash? Spend hours re-downloading all your games, hopefully. Want to play in a different room? Run a cable throughout the house, or buy some expensive wireless equipment. Want to trade a game you don't like to a friend for one he doesn't? Sorry. Want to take your system with you on vacation and play in a room with no net access? Sorry. Want to build a system into your car? (people do it
:P ) Nope. By moving to a medialess model you loose all those little extras that come with having the game.
With the tutorial modes in virtually every modern game, instruction manuals have been made redundant. And how many videogamers do you know who read the manual?
HD crashes are certainly a possibility, presuming that's what set-top boxes of the future will use, but I'm sure downloading services will have registration info that allows them to verify what games you've purchased, and allow you to restore them.
I imagine that most gamers will play in only one room, the living room, but there could be multi-box subscription models, or the box might only need the Internet collection for downloading data, so you can hook it up to anything. We'll see what the content providers come up with.
Trading games might not be necessary, depending on the subscription model (unlimited downloads?), or you might be allowed to transfer ownership of the content. Again, we'll see what the content providers come up with.
Download times are unquestionably an issue, but as better compression algorithms are invented, they'll become less of a factor.Here's another reason why I think we won't go medialess. Time. Even with a high speed internet connection, download times will be very high. Want to download Vice City? It'll be a few hours, at least. In that time I can run to Gamestop, buy it, shoot the shit with the clerk, drive home, and play it for an hour. Plus, while at Gamestop, I'll see countless other games, one of which might catch my eye. And that's a good reason for the industry to keep media in and of itself.
Netflix is slower than downloading, but it's an extremely popular service. People are renting DVDs from Netflix instead of driving to the local video store because it's convenient and affordable. You don't get the packaging, but most people just want the content.
It's also far more efficient to "browse" on Netflix than a video store, since Netflix can recommend rentals based on your rental history, and it can give you far more information about the movies than the typical life-hating video-store clerk. A downloadable-game service could very easily have a similar setup.
-- Z.
In 20-30 years, we will all be using some form of gelatinous, proteinaceous data cubes that store 300Gb/in^2 and are read with atomic force microscopy. Or, maybe we'll be using disks coated with nanomagnetic material. Anything is possible.
You are startled by a grim snarl. Before you, you see 1 Red dragon. Will your stalwart band choose to (F)ight or (R)un?
Even if one must have a physical medium at times, I see the future as moving towards more backyard manufacturing - companies seeking to put and even make (possible with nanotechnology) things you need as close to your own house as possible at all stages.
Now there's something to be said for the Nintendo approach of making the hardware more capable and complex, but all the same your platform is a general computing device with some sort of controller, whether optical or manual doesn't matter.
Nothing prevents games from moving into a completely transient state of being, moving and being updated nearly at will. The industry will force it, for sure, but the consumer will appreciate the benefits as well. Hardcore gaming isn't the universe, but I think you're either here for the games or you're just a collector.
I don't know why everyone thinks games will be cheaper because you download them. I am sure you will pay some fee a month for using there servers (Ex. Xbox). Then you will still have to pay for the price of the game. Why would they lower the price to $30 when they can still charge $50? With no manufacturing to pay they get full on profits.
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I bet games will get cheaper... games were 50-90 bucks back in the early 90's now they are like 50 new.
Midwest
doubtful they're going below $50 for a first run title any time soon, regardless of if it's a download or a disc.
CD's have been $15 forever...despite the fact that it's old hat by now.
Ok
Um, I think you will find that the main factor in the price of games these days is not the cost of manufacturing them. That costs jack all ... especially for CD / DVD media. Cost of production of these puppies is literally pennies.
No, the real cost is in developing and marketing the game. And I'm afraid that isn't going to go down, whatever media you use. And that cost is still going to have to be re-couped by the companies - whether the final product comes on a CD, on a DVD, down a cable, or broadcast direct to your brain by trained psychics.
I'm not going to predict which way things will go, either for disc based or cart based machines. I'll just say I wouldn't be suprised by either. I would be suprised if carts weren't ever a consideration again, simply because carts are harder to pirate than discs / downloadable data(!!). Sure, it's not impossible, but it is much harder. And there's no way your average joe can knock up pirate copies of cart based games ... whereas given a bit of none too expensive equipment and a little bit of knowhow, anyone can churn out copies of disc based games.
Vroomfunkel
Re: Ok
+1 on the cost points. while the manufacturing costs have decreased the budget for something like FFVII far outstrips that of any cart based FF game for example.
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