My other point with this is that I don't think that the public is going to run out and pruchase a new system this year or even next when the untapped potential of the current line-up is still huge. And really, if I can get an Xbox, PS2 or GameCube for $150 or less with a well-established library of titles, I am not going to look into upgrading to the "next generation" until something that is unique can sway me.
We are to the point with consoles that I don't think people will need to upgrade. In the past, each new generation has come with a new feature. For instance:
2600 - Played relatively simple games
NES - Added side scrolling and much deeper games like Zelda that were not possible on the 2600
Geni / SNES - Added more speed and better graphics that offered new styles of games -- Like Mario Kart, Sonic and so on.
Playstation / N64 - Took gaming into a 3D world
Dreamcast / Xbox / GameCube / PS2 - Offered gamers 'net connectivity (although GameCube doesn't count) and much better 3D graphics.
What will the next generation offer that the current systems don't have? 3D graphics can't get that much better from here to be the only reason that people are going to upgrade...