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Thread: The Next Game Crash. You Are At Fault.

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    Default The Next Game Crash. You Are At Fault.

    Every few months you can count on a topic about whether or not there will be another 'Video Game Crash' like the one in 1984. It's not an unreasonable question by any means, but there is an inherent flaw in the discussion every time, which I just realised today.

    The focus of the discussion is always based on Game companies/developers, because by all rights, these guys were the cause of the Crash the first time. Flooding the market with total crap at ridiculous prices. The question is asked "are they repeating themselves?"...yes and no. Yes, they are flooding the market with crap. Ridiculous prices? Thats an opinion, but doesn't matter in terms of this discussion today. Another crash will not happen because of the amount of crap hitting the market, as Game developers have figured out how to market to the lowest common denominator, i.e. Casual Gamer/Mainstreamer. This customer brings so much revenue, it doesn't matter what the niche gamers are buying...they are just extra revenue on top of the base customer, i.e. lowest common denominator.

    My theory on what will cause a new crash, is something that cannot be stopped, and is something that gamers will not stop due to lack of ethics, scruples and all around cheapness. Your probably saying to yourself "OMG here comes the anti-emulation BS". Kinda sorta.

    First let me say I have no stake in the future of what is now our Modern game machines, I am interested in Cartridge systems so my time has come and gone. So really I could care less anymore what you guys do to your XBox. This thing is dangerous, and nobody sees that. It's dangerous because of it's ability to emulate just about everything that a PC can so far. Someone tell me, is it running an N64 yet? Well, emulation on this thing isn't a rare thing, everybody who's anybody is running every classic game emulator they can find, adding an 80Gig harddrive, making it a consolized PC basically.

    Think about this for a minute, what if someone figures out how to run a PS2 emulator on there? Download the Roms onto your 120gig HD = free new games. I'm not totally up to date on the capabilities of the Xbox emulation 'scene', but I havent read that a PS2 emulator is running on it. But something like that happening would be devastating, most gamers don't give a shit about the 'evil' corporations, they just want the games the cheapest way possible, and they WILL take as many free games as they can get without batting an eyelid, again pointing to the general lack of ethics, scruples, and all around cheapness of your average gamer.

    I don't know if it could happen with this generation of consoles, but with the new batch being obviously more powerful, it might not take very long for some computer hack/wiz to figure out how to make one console run the competition. Xbox seems to be a good candidate though, considering its architecture and its proven ability to run numerous emulators and its huge memory capacity.

    The idea of the XBox is whats dangerous, and its a catch 22 for consoles. Game companies have been creating ways to fight emulation for years and years, and now they've gone and made a console that is their enemy. Strange happenings indeed. But my point here is that it will be the GAMERS who create another game crash, if indeed there is one. It will not be the fault of the 'evil' 'greedy' corporations this time. Rather it will be the 'greedy' gamer who has to have it all for free that will ruin his own hobby.

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    Yep, banning the Xbox is obviously what needs to happen here.

    I don't think the Xbox is going to be able to emulate PS2 games. I'm not even sure that the Ybox/X2/Xwife/XYZPDQ or whatever it's called will be able to do that.

    For the record, this month alone I've spent damn near $200 on games and accessories, including buying a whole new system and starting to work toward getting another. The fact that a collectors' market exists for old cartridges and CD-based games, and the fact that in some cases there's real money to be made at it as a seller, kinda works against the assertion of most gamers being cheapskates. I've forked over money for no fewer than three different iterations of Pac-Man this month: Pac Man Vs. for the GC, the Namco 5-in-1 joystick, and Pac-Man Collection for the GBA...surely I could be getting my Pac-fix in MAME, and yet I keep pouring money into the little yellow guy.

    So much for my parents thinking that getting me that Odyssey2 20+ years ago would put an end to me blowing tons of money on video games in the arcade.

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    I was thinking about this today, actually.

    Emulation will probably create the next crash. But of course, it's possible that this is total bullshit...there are a lot of pirated/"shared" music, but the music industry hasn't crashed yet.

    My view is that all the hubub of controversial video games will destroy the industry. If developers focus away from "adult" situation, it won't get the interests of that age group (for shame!) and the teenage age group that tries to be like the adult age group. So, they have to focus on family games, which'll get them unpopular (Nintendo, anyone?). Thus, without the adults, then the video game industry will cripple. Think of Prohibition...except of course, the alcohol never stop...maybe the same thing will happen, from Chinese pirates or something.
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    My own opinion follows, as always. And, like all of us, I am entitled to it. So there.

    Total wild-ass guess here, but I'm thinking that the thousands upon thousands of people who picked up an Xbox Holiday Bundle over the Christmas break are not all going to rush out and have it MAME-ized. Most people just want to play Madden or Need for Speed, and they will do so happily.

    I would venture so far as to say that, in a crowd of 10,000 people who play console games, not even five would even have the slightest clue that the Xbox is capable of being modded the way some people have done. Yes, the potential is certainly there, and it is either scary or fascinating depending on your outlook (I tend to take the latter view). But potential does not immediately translate into action, as any scientist or psychologist can confirm. Besides that, most people won't want to void their precious warranty just to play an arcade-perfect port of Pac-Man.

    One more big prediction. Now that the video game industry has finally gone mainstream (to a certain extent), I think the possibility of a major crash happening like in 1984 is minimal. Certainly, there's a chance that one of the big players in today's market could take a serious dive (and before you say "Nintendo", realize that Microsoft still has a long way to go). And there's always the chance that Sony might delay too long before bringing out the PS3, thereby causing a "wait-and-see" attitude among the competition.

    What we certainly won't see again is any serious competition from home computers for the public's video gaming dollars. Computers themselves are still too expensive and complex to serve as a viable console replacement, and the constant hassle of upgrading from year to year basically guarantees that the majority of gamers are sticking with consoles for good.

    Finally, I don't care what the magazine or web site reviews claim from week to week -- on the whole, most games are a lot better than they ever were in terms of play quality and value for money. Most assuredly, there are the odd few games in every bunch that truly are a waste of plastic, but even the marginal titles on today's consoles tend to be at least a little entertaining. Most reviews tend to be either absolutely glowing or filled with schoolyard-insult-style commentary. There isn't a lot of middle ground. Thus, you can rest assured that when you buy a game for $9.99 or $14.99 these days, it will at least be worth its purchase price. The days of doorstop-worthy crap like Sssnake or Fire Fly seem to be long gone.

    Again, the preceding remains nothing more than my opinion. Your cooperation is appreciated.
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    I agree and disagree with Gunstarhero. I agree that gamers have the power to bring about the next videogame crash, but I don't think it will be through emulation, but rather through good ol' piracy.

    Not to turn this into PS2 Piracy 101, but with a mod chip (that becomes easier to install each generation), a CDR drive, and a cable modem, you can download and burn a new PS2 game every day of the week, whether it's from newsgroups, file sharing, or whatever. Almost every game that comes out is "ripped" so that it will fit on a regular 80 minute CDR -- if they won't fit, they can be spanned across multiple CD's. Those with DVD-R drives can download complete versions. I have friends with hundreds and hundreds of copied PS2 games and think nothing of it, because "they're things I wouldn't have bought anyway."

    I think the people that are playing MAME on their XBox are mostly hacker types anyway -- people that are pretty likely to have emulated games on their PC anyway. Personally, I think the real threat is the rate and ease that these console games are broken and pirated.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flack
    I agree and disagree with Gunstarhero. I agree that gamers have the power to bring about the next videogame crash, but I don't think it will be through emulation, but rather through good ol' piracy.

    Not to turn this into PS2 Piracy 101, but with a mod chip (that becomes easier to install each generation), a CDR drive, and a cable modem, you can download and burn a new PS2 game every day of the week, whether it's from newsgroups, file sharing, or whatever. Almost every game that comes out is "ripped" so that it will fit on a regular 80 minute CDR -- if they won't fit, they can be spanned across multiple CD's. Those with DVD-R drives can download complete versions. I have friends with hundreds and hundreds of copied PS2 games and think nothing of it, because "they're things I wouldn't have bought anyway."
    Think about the process involved there. You'd have to be fairly knowledgeable about the internet, have access to newsgroups, be in a "l33t" circle of people. Hell even I don't know how to access a piracy newsgroup, and I go on the internet all the time. Sure there is a significant portion of people who do this, but in comparision to the thousands of casual gamers out there who simply think PS2 burning is impossible without the right equipment or DVD Burners, and simply settle with games for Xmas...

    Look at the PSX, it's games simply needed to be put in a CD burner and hit *copy* and legions and legions of crappy publishers released equally crappy games, (Mary kate and olsen, anyone?) and they were guaranteed at least some profit. Almost everyone I know (i'm the only hardcore gamer I know ) had tons of burned games in that generation, and now we're in the next, most of them aren't even aware that they can play burned games on their consoles, much less the methods to do so.

    I think the people that are playing MAME on their XBox are mostly hacker types anyway -- people that are pretty likely to have emulated games on their PC anyway. Personally, I think the real threat is the rate and ease that these console games are broken and pirated.
    I agree totally. As for the argument about the power of emulators, you must realise that ALOT of work and hard coding goes into these things, they're not simply a matter of the computers sharing the same processing speed... up until a year ago only the most modern computers were able to handle the processing power of a gameboy advance emutlator... and the modern NES emulators probably couldn't be run on a first generation Pentium.

    An emulator is exactly what it name is. It emulates. It tricks the CPU and ROM images into thinking they're being played on the hardware. Thus it has to pretend it is the hardware, copying it's every process from it's sound board and graphics chips into its own language, and that takes alot of processing power. I don't think there will be a console capable of running current system games for at least another generation or two, and even then it will take it a long while for them to be up to playable and perfect standards.

    Personally, I think it's just too big an industry to go downhill at this point of time. I could see one singular company pulling a Hollywood example in pooling all it's money into one particular game, that doesn't sell well and ending up destitute, (Square pictures, anyone?) but I really don't see a collapse in the industry, unless something else comes along to capture the attention of thousands of gamers away from their screens.

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    In my opinion, the idea that emulation will cause another crash is total BS..

    Emulation to most degrees emulates hardware that has already left main stream, or close to its end (in the case of Neo Geo). When I say main stream, I mean "stop any kid on the street and ask them if they know, own or know where to buy a brand new system X".

    Most people don't mod their systems, most people buy their games. Modding systems, and copying games is not as simple as downloading MP3's from the web, so your typical person will not do it.

    As far as I know, there wasn't a great lot of ROM pirating pre-1984 crash. But there was a big amount of modded PS1's and copied CD's, yet Sony still did amazingly and the PS2 is still #1.

    Also, every time I go to EB-Games, the lineups just keep getting longer, and new titles are always sold out.

    If there is a dying breed out there, it's the arcade.. but it started dying long before MAME 0.1. It was only time before home systems were as good if not better than arcade hardware.

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    Piracy will always be there, but emulation is NOT gonna bring this bigger-than-Hollywood industry down.

    Yes an Xbox can be modded. Big deal. With all the hub-bub we hear from Slashdot or game news sites about hacks and mod chips we seem to think that practically everyone and their uncle is having this done. Reality check: not everyone mods their systems and I'm willing to bet my left shoe that the numbers of actual hacked Xboxes is low. Not everyone wants to be a solder-monkey or want to rip apart a brand new Xbox and screw up a $170+ investment.

    The emulation of current consoles ON current consoles is NOT going to happen. Period. Bleem couldn't come through with an all-encompassing emulator for the Dreamcast and had to settle with emulation packages for specific games. That's how tough it is on a "locked down" platform. And what did that give you? The ability to play games on the last generation of game system. Now forget the easy-to-program (and probably figure out, emulation wise) PS1 and let's focus on the PS2 with it's different processors and steep difficulty. Remember and emulator has to make the platform it's on "pretend" it's a completely different platform and that takes resources. Trying to emulate a PS2 with its specific and customized processors will probably slow the Xbox to a crawl and produce an experience that's less fun than watching flies fornicate on the wet paint that's drying. And emulating Gamecube? Not with its reverse spinning-AFAIK you can only emulate GC games ON a GC using a network connection. The only platform that has fear of losing cash through emulation on a console is the GBA as it IS of lesser techology and thus easier to emulate properly.

    The REAL threat of lost sales through emulation is on PC. These days a PC isn't all that expensive-$500 gets you a complete system that can easily run a GBA emulator. For less than a thousand and a buddy who will assemble it for beer you can have a cutting edge machine that, if there are emus out there, could probably run current generation console software. True not many are just going to buy a machine JUST to play emulated games BUT many do buy PCs because it too is a mainstream item. Surf the web, keep in touch with friends, download and burn music (legally or illegally, both are easy), play games, edit and print photos and more are some of the reasons people plunk down cash for a machine and playing emulated PS2 games (if possible) is a curiosity and a perk of the purchase. Remember the hoopla when the N64 emulator was released when the N64 WAS STILL OUT? If you have a decent machine (which then wasn't TOO expensive) and a good internet connection you could download an N64 game and it will look BETTER than it does on the actual machine.

    Basically, I wouldn't lose sleep over Xbox mods or emulation causing a crash. The day the industry loses THAT much money over emus/piracy is when we know society really is in the toilet.

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    Most "casual" console gamers (by far the majority) can't use their PC's and the internet to a sufficient degree to be effective at any kind of piracy.

    As a repair guy, I can say for certian that mods are useless to Joe Gamer, unless he has a buddy or unscrupulous businessman handy to 'buy' burned games from, which come close to defeating the purpose in the first place (pirated games being cheap instead of free).

    Piracy was around on the fringes in the eight bit days, and it's on the fringes today. You hear more about it today because:
    1) Companies are PR'ing us to death with their 'losses' (RIAA anyone?)
    2) Internet forums like this one allow for a far greater awareness of all facets of gaming, including piracy.

    Awareness is not ability.

    My 2 cents.
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    I think the argument needs to be made that some 85% of all pirates wouldn't have bought the game in the first place, and another 10% would buy it if they had the money (poor college students, etc.).

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    Piracy will *never* go away, but I don't think it will cause another crash. The only thing that would cause another crash, IMO, would be losing the mainstream audience.

    The argument that pirates wouldn't purchase the games in the first place is a faulty one. Sure you can argue that there wouldn't be revenue as they wouldn't buy the game - but I'll argue right back that costs are higher because of the time and money spent trying to keep people honest.
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    Piracy was quite rampant on the Commodore 64, if I am not mistaken. Some companies like Epyx supposedly even suffered greatly. It didn't really lead to a "crash", though, did it?

    I'd say a crash is unlikely in this day and age. The market of parents willing to buy all kinds of things for their children is enough to sustain the industry.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RoboticParanoia
    Emulation will probably create the next crash. But of course, it's possible that this is total bullshit...there are a lot of pirated/"shared" music, but the music industry hasn't crashed yet.
    Depends on your definition of "crash." Music sales are *way* down, CD-R sales are booming, and record companies and retailers are scrambling to come up with solutions to the piracy problem: suing the shit out of people, copy protection, legal online-music sources, bundling DVDs and Willy Wonka-esque "golden tickets" with CDs, et cetera. Nothing's worked yet, and nothing likely will.

    My view is that all the hubub of controversial video games will destroy the industry.
    Nah. M-rated games are here to stay, and the ESRB system, while flawed, is doing its job of informing clueless parents. The majority of best-selling games are T- or E-rated anyway; GTA3 and VC are the exception.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jorpho
    Piracy was quite rampant on the Commodore 64, if I am not mistaken. Some companies like Epyx supposedly even suffered greatly. It didn't really lead to a "crash", though, did it?
    It didn't lead to a crash, but it certainly had a considerable effect. Dani Bunten Berry liked to point out how literally *everyone* in the early '80s seemed to have played M.U.L.E., despite a modest number of copies being sold. Commodore Amiga publishers also blamed rampant piracy for that platform's lack of success in the States.

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    I must have a romanticized view of how easy it is to manipulate an XBox into a multi-system emulator. From just reading gaming newsgroups though, I gather over half of XBox owners(online) are getting their units all equiped with the various MAMEulators. I think its easier to do than some of you are making it out to be. And who's to say it won't become easier? Right now you can buy a CD on ebay that includes the emulator software and all the games of 'pick-your-system'. Nothing complicated about it, just boot up the CD, install the software and wala!, you got the whole NES collection.

    Don't think for a second that there aren't hacks out there trying to create a process like this for the XBox, for their profit. I won't be suprised if there are DVD's made in this manner in the near future.

    This problem has never been up for discussion in the past because it's just now coming to light. There was never a console until the XBox that was capable of such things. I don't think something like the PS2 being emulated on the XBox will happen this generation, but as the next generation of systems becomes more and more powerful, whats to stop it? Each year, PC hacks acheive greater goals in the emulation field, ever closing the gap that consoles have from being emulated. As already mentioned the N64 was emulated before the machine was dead!

    Look, when NEO GEO roms are being dumped to the internet before the game is even out in arcades, you can rest assured that there are people dedicated enough to want to emulate and pirate anything they can, classic or modern. It's easy to shrug off because the market is so good right now, it's so good that how can one possibly believe there is a problem? I'm just trying to gaze into the future here. The more powerful the consoles get, becoming more like PC's, this is going to be a problem you'll have to face. I'm sure Microsoft never dreamed that their XBox was going to be turned into a MAME cab. Sure that might help sell systems to hacks, but software is what brings in revenue.

    I understand your average gamer probably doesn't know about modding their console etc...But, make it easy and widely available then you've got a problem, like before I mentioned there will probably be a disc available soon that contains the emulation software and games all in one easy installation. Sold for $5 or something, there you've just given the mouse a cookie.

    I'm of course thinking worst case scenario here, as I'm feeling a bit overtly-cynical here at the end of the year. I'm still serious though, as none of this is impossible. Whats really interesting is with higher advancement of this design of consoles(harddrive, DVDrom etc..), you won't have any lingering competition like we did in the past. For instance the NES hung around in the market until the SNES came out in 1991, amidst stiff competition from the Genesis, but it was still a money maker. Now, lets say the XBox2 comes out, and someone quickly trains it to emulate the GC or PS2, they have no choice but to upgrade hardware.

    Just wonder how long it will be until the big 3 will be emulated on the PC, if some haven't been functioning already that I'm unaware of. It'll happen. It always happens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunstarhero
    Just wonder how long it will be until the big 3 will be emulated on the PC, if some haven't been functioning already that I'm unaware of. It'll happen. It always happens.
    Exactly. It *does* always happen. It just takes time for the hardware to blow past the console's specs. I'm sure those of you who have followed emulation for a while remember the painfully slow NES and SNES emulators. N64 was considered "impossible" at the time -- now, that and PSX run perfectly. When we all have 10ghz machines on our desks, we'll think nothing of running PS2/Gamecube/Xbox games on our PCs. I'm actually pretty surprised no one's done Xbox on a PC yet, since the platforms should be pretty similar.

    And I'm with you Gunstarhero, I must just be desensitized to the piracy scene. Alt.binaries.playstation2 fills with games every day. Those too afraid or inexperiences to mod their own consoles can buy them premodded.

    I think one thing this might lead to in the future is more proprietary systems. If Microsoft gets tired of people hacking the Xbox, maybe version 2 won't have a removable HD, or even an IDE interface. One of the common problems with these seems to be that you can read the discs on the PC. The Dreamcast stood for a long time. So did the GC. What about a system that uses a different network protocol or something? I don't know what the answer is, but if your console is made with PC parts it makes sense that it'll be modified.

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    But, make it easy and widely available then you've got a problem, like before I mentioned there will probably be a disc available soon that contains the emulation software and games all in one easy installation. Sold for $5 or something, there you've just given the mouse a cookie.
    DivX caps of Family Guy episodes abounds, if you know where to look. I had 'em all. Family Guy is on DVD, now. Bought 'em all, and I love it! Deleted all my DivX caps.

    The solution is as simple as the above. These Atari and IntelliVision compilations are smart. In my opinion, they only GENERATE interest in The Real Thing, as opposed to killing it. It's easy to beat the pirates, just give people what they want, in a convenient way, at a decent price. You'll win over 90% of consumers every time, and make a mint doing it.

    When you make it easier to pirate than to acquire legally, the copyright owner is begging for trouble.
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    Maybe it's just me...but I always figured it would be the companies that make the market crash. I mean, look it how bleak everything looked back in the 3DO / Jaguar days. I almost left gaming because there was squat coming out that impressed me, and the prices ($700 3DO!?!) were not justifiable. It took the near perfect PSX port of SF Alpha for me to get back into gaming.

    I think those same lingering doubts and fears are happening again, but only in the *true* gaming circles. Now that we have companies gearing their products towards the mainstream rather than the hardcore, a LOT of series have seen a huge drop in quality (Final Fantasy 8, X, X-2, Ridge Racer going Simulation, most 2D fghters that went 3D, etc...)

    Those of us that want that old feeling back aren't exactly getting it in today's titles, hence why we flock to the classics and such. Metroid Prime and Metal Gear Solid 2 aisde, I can't remember the last game I played 'hardcore' style . Most I play for a few hours, and tossed aside because it's just like every other damn game on the market. Hence why I stick to the older stuffs. They actually tried to do something.

    Besides, if I remember the original crash, it wasn't piracy that took it down; to recreate it accurately we'd need Microsoft to print 5 million copies of a crappy Halo 2 for 3 Million Xbox systems ;D

  19. #19
    Great Puma (Level 12) YoshiM's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gunstarhero
    This problem has never been up for discussion in the past because it's just now coming to light. There was never a console until the XBox that was capable of such things. I don't think something like the PS2 being emulated on the XBox will happen this generation, but as the next generation of systems becomes more and more powerful, whats to stop it? Each year, PC hacks acheive greater goals in the emulation field, ever closing the gap that consoles have from being emulated. As already mentioned the N64 was emulated before the machine was dead!
    Actually there was a machine that was capable and that's the Dreamcast. Yeah it took a while but there are a bunch of retro emulators available for that platform. I think you can even run Linux off of it. Yes I said the N64 was emulated (UltraHLE) but that was in 1999 and you needed a Voodoo/3DFX card and one heckuva machine to even THINK of running it. Nintendo WAS pissed but the likelyhood of this emu doing any damage to them was fairly nil. There was also a pretty solid Gameboy emulator since way back in 1996/97. Didn't stop things there, the Gameboy sales are still busting charts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gunstarhero
    I'm of course thinking worst case scenario here, as I'm feeling a bit overtly-cynical here at the end of the year. I'm still serious though, as none of this is impossible. Whats really interesting is with higher advancement of this design of consoles(harddrive, DVDrom etc..), you won't have any lingering competition like we did in the past. For instance the NES hung around in the market until the SNES came out in 1991, amidst stiff competition from the Genesis, but it was still a money maker. Now, lets say the XBox2 comes out, and someone quickly trains it to emulate the GC or PS2, they have no choice but to upgrade hardware.
    Not really "worst case scenario" but more like "illogical extreme". We still have lingering competition...sort of. There are still PSOne games still being made (at least there were recently). Basically, it's the stance that once something new comes out the previous product is (typically) "dead" in the eyes of consumers. With the scenario of an "Xbox2" being trained to emulate the GC or PS2: "IF" something DOES come out (may be difficult as the future platform is going to be VASTLY different) by the time it does the GC and PS2 and going to be antiquated by the mainstream standards and it won't be perfect until some time after. Again, nothing to loose sleep over.

    Dude, I think you may be blowing this way off the deep end.

  20. #20
    Pac-Man (Level 10) ianoid's Avatar
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    Default No crash

    Sorry guys, there will be no video game crash.

    Piracy is a thorn in the side of all digital media. No sooner will there be a crash in DVD movie sales will there be a crash in Video Game Sales. There may be ups and downs, but nothing as drastic as the brief few years of the original crash of '84.

    Video games are a part of modern cultures, loved by children and adults alike, and no longer a simple trend.

    This is the dawn of interactive entertainment! Enjoy while you still can't!

    ian

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