How Long Before the Kickstarter Bubble Bursts? [Slashdot]

[DP ServBot]

An opinion piece at Gamasutra takes a look at the recent success of Kickstarter campaigns for video game projects — Double Fine's adventure game and a sequel to Wasteland each raised around $3 million. Hundreds of other projects have sprung up, hoping to replicate that success — but will it last? From the article: "I am convinced that Tim Schafer and his team at Double Fine know how to deliver a game (mostly) on time and (mostly) on budget. Brian Fargo too. Is that true for all 314 of the current Kickstarter projects? What about the projects which get started but never finished? If publishers like LucasArts can cancel games that are almost finished or like Codemasters can pay for a game it never saw, what certainty do pledgers have that the game that they have paid for will ever see the light of day? We are still in the early days of our Kickstarter relationship, the early days of falling in love. Everything our partner does is wonderful. We gloss over the risks, we ignore the downsides, because the glory of falling in love is everything. I think we have about six months left of that period. Towards the end of this year, some Kickstarter projects are going to start slipping. Some will see their teams collapse amidst bicker recriminations. Some pledgers are going to start getting very angry."

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[Kim Possible]

The bubble is already bursting all over the place. There have been a number of app developers rise and fall on kickstarter in the past year. It's just not realistic. I'm all for the grass roots effort, but things like kickstarter draw out every wannabe programmer with half an idea and dreams of being the next Bethesda. Chances are good it just isn't going to happen. Great ideas and games get snatched up by serious developers long before they get near the implementation stage. All kickstarter is good for is bringing games with real potential to the attention of actual developers and even that is a long shot.

This is no different than the thousands of independent comic book creators out there who scrape up enough friends and cash to get two issues printed before they realize that this is a business and that the business is already dominated by people who know how to work the business.

Like homebrewing, do it because you love it and for the love of it and let that be enough of a goal. If you make $5 consider yourself lucky and have a beer. If you hit the big time and design the next HALO, then bully for you. Just because the information age has opened up a new opportunity for you to reach out to potential backers doesn't mean that you are on your way to being the next Capcom.

Dreamkiller Kim...

[Tupin]

Though it might be a good way for some indie developers, I think it's shown the most promise with relatively large ones, oddly enough. A company like Double Fine or a person like Al Lowe putting feelers out there to see if anyone is willing to put up cash for a game that probably wouldn't sell that great otherwise.

Word of mouth is the best way to spread an indie game, but I suppose if you raise 20k for your first game, you have to provide something. That comparison with comics would fit if only two or three people expected return. With Kickstarter, you can have thousands of people who want your game and you can't disappoint them.

[WCP]

Ask Ryan Payton. I think it already has burst...


http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/...amouflaj-logan

[lwizardl]

Ask Ryan Payton. I think it already has burst...

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/...amouflaj-logan

While I don't know how much time is left on the bubble for programs like kickstarter, but I do know I want to play that Republique game for sure!!

[WCP]

While I don't know how much time is left on the bubble for programs like kickstarter, but I do know I want to play that Republique game for sure!!

Well, the goal is 500K and right now they are at 300K with a little over 3 days left. I would expect them to get some investor that will agree to throw in 100K, just so the kickstarter goes thru. Somebody on the inside will do it, just so they can get the other 350K that's been invested. They will probably need another guy to kick in 50K as well. I think this game gets made, but I have a feeling that it will end up a disappointment to many.

[Genesaturn]

Kickstarter I think is a great....for the most part and for the right developer. For noted developers with a background looking to create something we know they will be able to do well...they will be fine. As said above though, you have a lot of indie dev's coming out of the woodwork..and sorry, but people don't want to take a chance on someone they never heard of or someone who doesn't have a background list of great games. I noticed kickstarter also moved into the realm of comics. Another move I like..but again...it will be great only in the right hands.

[WCP]

Well, Republique made it. Hopefully now that they got this money, they can actually make something happen. It's going to be interesting to see if they can deliver the goods.