Atari 2600 Air Raid box found

[PingvinBlueJeans]

I think someone should confront Tanner at CGE and ask him to swear on a Bible that the box is real.

[megasdkirby]

I think someone should confront Tanner at CGE and ask him to swear on a Bible that the box is real.

That dick (the one with the Bible...Sibrel is it?) deserved the punch in the face.

[TonyTheTiger]

With all of the speculation that exists that the box is not real, I can't help but think that the true value of the box isn't $31,000 but is much, much higher.

The lack of true, unassailable proof as to it's legitamacy should have been reflected in the bidding process, shouldn't it?

Not necessarily. The number of people who are both Atari collectors and affluent enough to afford tens of thousands for a single game has got to be pretty small. If the lot of them agree that its real then it doesn't matter what the rest of the world thinks since they'd only be competing with each other anyway.

[Rom Hunter]

I personally agree that the box is "legit", whatever that means in the context of an item of this type, but I believe strongly that there is a lot of information missing about the item which makes it very difficult for people to accept that this has somehow become the most expensive video game on the planet.

Exactly what information, besides the name and adress of the Taiwanese maker, is missing?

Collecting VCS is not complex in the way that collecting obscure art or other items might be.

That totally depends on what VCS games sector you're trying collect.

If you're into collecting label, manual and box variations or non-US VCS cart releases, it can become extremely complex.

Try collecting and determining Thai VCS cart releases, for example.

I concluded then as I believe now that it's a legitimate item, but not something I would collect because frankly it's no different than any other Hong Kong knock-off in my opinion, regardless of where it was sold or where it has been found.

It's actually completely different than any other Hong Kong knock-off (which is a complete world on its own - including many original releases, btw).

If you study "Hong Kong knock-offs" (or Taiwanese pirates as I would like to call them) more closely, you won't find any cart that matches the Air Raid cart.

There are still lots of questions to be answered...

Again: exactly which ones?

8)

[Bojay1997]

Exactly what information, besides the name and adress of the Taiwanese maker, is missing?


That totally depends on what VCS games sector you're trying collect.

If you're into collecting label, manual and box variations or non-US VCS cart releases, it can become extremely complex.

Try collecting and determining Thai VCS cart releases, for example.


It's actually completely different than any other Hong Kong knock-off (which is a complete world on its own - including many original releases, btw).

If you study "Hong Kong knock-offs" (or Taiwanese pirates as they are called) more closely, you won't find any cart that matches the Air Raid cart.


Again: exactly which ones?

8)

Let's see. Who programmed it, how it ended up being sold in the United States, whether there was any actual retail as opposed to liquidator distribution, how it ended up at Tuesday Morning, whether it was sold outside of that chain, how many were made, the list goes on and on. Please see the many posts above for the questions many of us have. If you have the answers, please post them here, I'm sure all of us would love to know them.

I think you are confusing complexity with being detail oriented. It's not hard to compare label, manual and box variations. There was some time required in compiling complete variation lists and lists of VCS games from various regions and the physical labor of obtaining the games, but there is nothing complex about it.

Tell me more about "studying" Hong Kong knock-offs. It sounds fascinating. I'm sorry, it's really sad to me that people are taking this auction as an opportunity to lord their alleged specialization in obscure branches of collecting over everyone else. I know that to some people, this auction legitimizes their collecting of items which most of the rest of the collecting world thinks of as virtually valueless (such as the aforementioned "Taiwanese pirates"), but from my perspective, the only difference between this game and the rest of the pirate games is that it happened to turn up at a more mainstream liquidation retailer as opposed to being relegated to the back alleys of various Chinatowns and swap meets in major metropolitan areas. I'd really love to hear how you think Air Raid differs.

[goatdan]

Here to toss in two cents real quick like...

Let's see. Who programmed it, how it ended up being sold in the United States, whether there was any actual retail as opposed to liquidator distribution, how it ended up at Tuesday Morning, whether it was sold outside of that chain, how many were made, the list goes on and on. Please see the many posts above for the questions many of us have. If you have the answers, please post them here, I'm sure all of us would love to know them.

You know though, these questions are what truly drives the value of this particular game. If the people behind Men-A-Vision suddenly come forward with the full story, suddenly the mystery behind this game disappears.

And so does the pricing of it.

Air Raid is worth huge money in no small part because of the story. It's a one-off cartridge that looks very unique, it is extremely uncommon even for rare games (hell, there are more known Gold NES Competition Carts out there) and the speculation about it's history and the rarity behind it *greatly* drive the value of the game.

The box is worth so much because it answers a couple questions, while creating many, many more. If the box had answered the question that there were tons of these made, or if the box had answered the question of exactly who ran the company, or anything like that -- it wouldn't have been worth so much. But for now, it's an extremely mysterious piece, and that really drives the interest in it.

Imagine if it turned out that the box was found, but the story was that Men-A-Vision created only 20 of them to give to stores as demos and not official releases, and then no stores picked them up? Suddenly, so many people that treat it as the rarest 2600 cart would look at it more like a prototype, and it's value would decline.

I would personally never collect this particular cart for the 2600 if I was big into collecting for the system. To me, the carts I would want are the Atari carts and the big companies -- Parker Bros, Activision, Coleco, Intellivision, Imagic. Manufacturers that made only one cartridge? Just seems odd to me, and with so few found, I have always believed these were demos sent to stores to get them to order games, and then the company folded well before they ever mass produced or shipped finished games.

I have *no* way of knowing that, but the box coming from a liquidator seems like it would work with that theory - a store gets the game, goes under, and when this Tuesday place comes in they get it in their bulk purchase.

But you know what -- the mystery remains, and I think it will for a long time with this cart, which will continue to drive interest in it and make it a worthy addition to any collector's collection, and a talking point for everyone like it is now.

[tom]

I recall Condor Attack wasn't sealed when we (my brother and I) found new, CIB copies a few years back. But even when it was in great condition, it had marks of it being old....

Air Raid looks too pristine for it's age, which is one reason why I am skeptical.

.

Tell me the truth, that Condor Attack box is a fake.

I have pristine VCS games from even earlier, that's not an argument, and you know it.

[Bojay1997]

Here to toss in two cents real quick like...



You know though, these questions are what truly drives the value of this particular game. If the people behind Men-A-Vision suddenly come forward with the full story, suddenly the mystery behind this game disappears.

And so does the pricing of it.

Air Raid is worth huge money in no small part because of the story. It's a one-off cartridge that looks very unique, it is extremely uncommon even for rare games (hell, there are more known Gold NES Competition Carts out there) and the speculation about it's history and the rarity behind it *greatly* drive the value of the game.

The box is worth so much because it answers a couple questions, while creating many, many more. If the box had answered the question that there were tons of these made, or if the box had answered the question of exactly who ran the company, or anything like that -- it wouldn't have been worth so much. But for now, it's an extremely mysterious piece, and that really drives the interest in it.

Imagine if it turned out that the box was found, but the story was that Men-A-Vision created only 20 of them to give to stores as demos and not official releases, and then no stores picked them up? Suddenly, so many people that treat it as the rarest 2600 cart would look at it more like a prototype, and it's value would decline.

I would personally never collect this particular cart for the 2600 if I was big into collecting for the system. To me, the carts I would want are the Atari carts and the big companies -- Parker Bros, Activision, Coleco, Intellivision, Imagic. Manufacturers that made only one cartridge? Just seems odd to me, and with so few found, I have always believed these were demos sent to stores to get them to order games, and then the company folded well before they ever mass produced or shipped finished games.

I have *no* way of knowing that, but the box coming from a liquidator seems like it would work with that theory - a store gets the game, goes under, and when this Tuesday place comes in they get it in their bulk purchase.

But you know what -- the mystery remains, and I think it will for a long time with this cart, which will continue to drive interest in it and make it a worthy addition to any collector's collection, and a talking point for everyone like it is now.

But we know for a fact it's not a one-off (at least the cartridge with color label isn't since at least 12 are in the hands of collectors with possibly many more out there). I can't see how uncertainty necessarily drives the value of the item up. In my mind, it may actually be keeping it down. It keeps a lot of wealthy collectors from bidding because they don't know enough about it to make an educated determination of its value. I have heard more than one collector say that they expect a warehouse find of these to emerge or additional boxed copies to pop up. That may or may not happen, but it certainly keeps people from bidding.

It's not like the consensus in the collecting community is that the game is worth $31K. That's just something that a few wealthy collectors temporarily determined by their bidding war on Ebay. Nobody knows for sure what the next one will sell for or if this one will get anywhere close to $31K if the recent purchaser decides to sell someday. Who knows, if the full story comes out and there is only one boxed copy in existence, perhaps the value will be even higher. My point is just that for long-term valuation purposes, knowing the backstory and having some certainty about what we are dealing with is very, very important.

[Ryaan1234]

Well, Tuesday Morning doesn't 'stock' things, per se (or, they didn't back in the 80's). They were more of a close-out type store. They'd buy the remaining stock of something from a warehouse, and sell it cheap. The stores were only open a few months out of the year (usually Nov-Dec, and June-July I think). Something weird like that. I don't know where/how they would buy inventory, but it's conceivable that they bought a lot of 'toys/games' that had a case of 6 Air Raids... So their entire inventory could have consisted of 6 games. Or, they could have purchased 100's in a 'remaining inventory' transaction... They did even have one-of-a-kind items occasionally, but they were usually obviously unique things like a statue or something...

Part of the appeal of the store was that you never knew what you would find there, and there was a good chance that the next time you went there whatever you saw before would never be there again...

Please don't insult my intelligence. Maybe you didn't notice, but the whole "Who keeps only one game in stock" mini-rant was just there to lead up to the "Any Texas DPers wanna take a road trip?" joke.

Hence the "".

and yes, I guess you didn't get that it was a joke. You've explained the concept of Tuesday Morning to me in a very condescending tone, and I've now explained my joke to you in a very condescending tone. I think we're even.

[allyourblood]

I don't know. I just re-read rik1138's post and I didn't see anything that could be construed as condescending. I think he was just trying to explain how these Tuesday Morning stores work to folks in the thread who don't know how they operate. I wouldn't take it personally.

[goatdan]

But we know for a fact it's not a one-off (at least the cartridge with color label isn't since at least 12 are in the hands of collectors with possibly many more out there).

I never said it was a one-off, I said that it is very conceivable to me at least that Men-A-Vision made these not as a released product, but as samples to get stores to buy them. Having worked in similar environments, it is *very* common for companies to send a sample product out to a store with an order form.

My guess is that Men-A-Vision created a very small batch of these -- but geared up the mold and everything else for orders that then never came. Maybe they sent out 50, maybe 500, maybe 10,000 to stores as samples. Then, my guess is that the video game crash happened, and no one placed an order for anything, making the company go belly up before any wide release of the game or any others from them.

Most sample stuff like that, especially if the buyer for the store was either not a video game fan, would simply get thrown out. To me, it is the most plausible idea of what the real story is behind this.

But again, I never said it was a one-off. I know there were more than one made. It would also perfectly explain how one copy got into a liquidator store.

I can't see how uncertainty necessarily drives the value of the item up. In my mind, it may actually be keeping it down. It keeps a lot of wealthy collectors from bidding because they don't know enough about it to make an educated determination of its value. I have heard more than one collector say that they expect a warehouse find of these to emerge or additional boxed copies to pop up. That may or may not happen, but it certainly keeps people from bidding.

To my mind, if you are willing to spend $30k on a game, you have enough money that if it declines greatly in value, you'll still be okay. I mean, if you're spending $30k on anything and you don't have it in spare value, what is to say you'd get your money back? No matter what, that money is tied up while you own the item.

So your feeling though is that the story to emerge from this game would drive up values if it was known? I don't know what result would do that. If my theory is correct and it is proven to be a sample game, I think that it would go down in value. If the theory is correct and it is determined that 2500 carts were made, people would wait for more to be found. If the theory is correct that this wasn't really supposed to be a US release (which the box seems to contradict), then that would drive the value down. If it is determined that only 25 cartridges were assembled, and they were done by hand and sold at some store, then that would drive values down.

I see no story that would cause values to increase on this game, but the mystery makes it something that is a lot more intriguing to people I think. Maybe I'm wrong on that, but it's definitely an interesting thing. If we knew the story, would this thread by 9+ pages long?

It's not like the consensus in the collecting community is that the game is worth $31K. That's just something that a few wealthy collectors temporarily determined by their bidding war on Ebay. Nobody knows for sure what the next one will sell for or if this one will get anywhere close to $31K if the recent purchaser decides to sell someday. Who knows, if the full story comes out and there is only one boxed copy in existence, perhaps the value will be even higher. My point is just that for long-term valuation purposes, knowing the backstory and having some certainty about what we are dealing with is very, very important.

But you're dealing with something so rare that standard valuation really doesn't apply. The $31k that this particular copy sold for wasn't something that everyone got together and debated, but the fact is that there are maybe 100 collectors willing to pay thousands for a game, and there are a few clearly willing to bid $30k plus for it. So, while the whole community didn't sit around debating what it was worth, the current price is $31k. And, you're right -- the next time it sells it will be another temporary determination, as unless a ton of these are suddenly found, it will never change hands enough for everyone to determine a real cost.

It isn't worth $30k to me, but that just means that I'll never be setting the price.

And really, with things this rare, the highest end collectors always determine the price, and it will always fluctuate depending on who is looking at the moment. That first Stadium Events auction drove people who didn't collect NES games into the market and is a big part of the reason that the second auction did so well. If another Air Raid sold right now, with the publicity that it is getting, I'm certain that it would sell for more.

The whole comic community didn't set the price for Action Comics #1 to sell for $1.5 million dollars a couple weeks ago. That was again, just a couple high profile bidders who set the price for a highly sought after item. Air Raid is no different. A boxed copy of Air Raid *is* worth $31k until another boxed copy of Air Raid turns up, or the first one is sold.

[Bojay1997]

I never said it was a one-off, I said that it is very conceivable to me at least that Men-A-Vision made these not as a released product, but as samples to get stores to buy them. Having worked in similar environments, it is *very* common for companies to send a sample product out to a store with an order form.

My guess is that Men-A-Vision created a very small batch of these -- but geared up the mold and everything else for orders that then never came. Maybe they sent out 50, maybe 500, maybe 10,000 to stores as samples. Then, my guess is that the video game crash happened, and no one placed an order for anything, making the company go belly up before any wide release of the game or any others from them.

Most sample stuff like that, especially if the buyer for the store was either not a video game fan, would simply get thrown out. To me, it is the most plausible idea of what the real story is behind this.

But again, I never said it was a one-off. I know there were more than one made. It would also perfectly explain how one copy got into a liquidator store.



To my mind, if you are willing to spend $30k on a game, you have enough money that if it declines greatly in value, you'll still be okay. I mean, if you're spending $30k on anything and you don't have it in spare value, what is to say you'd get your money back? No matter what, that money is tied up while you own the item.

So your feeling though is that the story to emerge from this game would drive up values if it was known? I don't know what result would do that. If my theory is correct and it is proven to be a sample game, I think that it would go down in value. If the theory is correct and it is determined that 2500 carts were made, people would wait for more to be found. If the theory is correct that this wasn't really supposed to be a US release (which the box seems to contradict), then that would drive the value down. If it is determined that only 25 cartridges were assembled, and they were done by hand and sold at some store, then that would drive values down.

I see no story that would cause values to increase on this game, but the mystery makes it something that is a lot more intriguing to people I think. Maybe I'm wrong on that, but it's definitely an interesting thing. If we knew the story, would this thread by 9+ pages long?



But you're dealing with something so rare that standard valuation really doesn't apply. The $31k that this particular copy sold for wasn't something that everyone got together and debated, but the fact is that there are maybe 100 collectors willing to pay thousands for a game, and there are a few clearly willing to bid $30k plus for it. So, while the whole community didn't sit around debating what it was worth, the current price is $31k. And, you're right -- the next time it sells it will be another temporary determination, as unless a ton of these are suddenly found, it will never change hands enough for everyone to determine a real cost.

It isn't worth $30k to me, but that just means that I'll never be setting the price.

And really, with things this rare, the highest end collectors always determine the price, and it will always fluctuate depending on who is looking at the moment. That first Stadium Events auction drove people who didn't collect NES games into the market and is a big part of the reason that the second auction did so well. If another Air Raid sold right now, with the publicity that it is getting, I'm certain that it would sell for more.

The whole comic community didn't set the price for Action Comics #1 to sell for $1.5 million dollars a couple weeks ago. That was again, just a couple high profile bidders who set the price for a highly sought after item. Air Raid is no different. A boxed copy of Air Raid *is* worth $31k until another boxed copy of Air Raid turns up, or the first one is sold.

I agree that the sample thing is one potential scenario. Let me share another one that could result in the value going up if proven to be true. This game saw a small production run of a couple of thousand copies, it was never shipped to retailers or shipped to very few because the company went bankrupt before it could be distributed. The retailers that did carry it sent their copies back when they didn't sell and eventually a few copies were sold to Tuesday Morning at liquidation while most of the remaining copies were destroyed by the bankruptcy trustee when storage costs outweighed their value. Under that scenario, I think this could be considered a regular retail release and one that saw very, very limited distribution.

I don't agree that a second Air Raid would necessarily sell for more in similar condition. Essentially, you have already satisfied demand at that level and the next copy in theory should go for less, perhaps far less depending on the gaps between the levels the top three bidders were at in the original auction. Of course, there is a possibility that it could go for more or that other collectors would enter the bidding or that the original group who bid it up still have the money and interest. Of course, now you are talking about an item that would have two known boxed copies.

I would think that rather than a set value of $31K, the game would more likely have a range of value estimate like auction houses use. They would analyze the bidding patterns and make some calculations about the potential demand for the item. It could sell for more or less than the estimate, just like every other auction. We know what it sold for, but there is no guarantee that it would sell for that amount again because there is not enough consistent availability and demand to know either way. Value is typically not set in collectibles by just one transaction. If you look at price guides, they will create a range and add a comment to the effect that one copy sold for a particular price at auction, etc...

[tom]

That could be true, the second (sealed) Stadium Events didn't sell for 40k, in the end they settled on 12k approx.

[megasdkirby]

Tell me the truth, that Condor Attack box is a fake.

I have pristine VCS games from even earlier, that's not an argument, and you know it.

Your copy of Xman is fake too!

No, but for the most part, one would think that there would be SOME indication that it was old. Nothing remains the same way when it's released, no matter how well it is treated. There is always some indication, even diminute, that it's old. But this box looks only a bit worn, so unless the person is extremely picky about item condition, I find this hard to believe, specially when he said he had it as a little kid, which at that age not everyone will keep things pristine.

I have heard more than one collector say that they expect a warehouse find of these to emerge or additional boxed copies to pop up. That may or may not happen, but it certainly keeps people from bidding.

I agree. I for one feel that, sooner or later, more copies will appear, some even with their boxes. Heck, what about if it had a manual too? So why waste so much on this game, or for any video game? Just seems ludicrous.

Could the game just be a hobbyist job? Maybe someone back then was bored, "created" the game, and actually started selling it on his/her own accord.

A boxed copy of Air Raid *is* worth $31k until another boxed copy of Air Raid turns up, or the first one is sold.

It's going to happen (reselling the game). At one point the new owner will sell it, and at which point will be interesting to see what happens.

That could be true, the second (sealed) Stadium Events didn't sell for 40k, in the end they settled on 12k approx.

It's because of what I told you earlier: people are desperate. We've discussed this before, Tom. A game goes very high because the person is so desperate that they think they NEED the copy. They might deny the fact that they are not desperate, but deep down it is that motivation that drives a person to do some incredible things.

[Icarus Moonsight]

The uncertainty is basically the fulcrum of potential market value, and it stands pretty high as it is. The up/down once clarity reigns and the dust settles could be epic, to the better or worse. Goat has a very good point about the mystique factor... It's strong with this one. "As strong as a small pony."

[Sniderman]

I think someone should confront Tanner at CGE and ask him to swear on a Bible that the box is real.

I will never accept that unless the Bible itself is first confirmed to be official - perhaps a Gutenberg blessed by the Pope or something. Or a Dead Sea Scroll.

[Greg2600]

Greg, I can't tell if that's a serious or sarcastic post, but I doubt you'll be hearing from the individuals who ran "Men-A-Vision" any time soon since they're likely in Taiwan and probably only speak Chinese.

I was serious, but I thought Men-a-Vision was in Los Angeles. Oh well. If they were stationed in Taiwan, then this game is a bit more of a pirate than a true US release, IMO.

[PingvinBlueJeans]

I will never accept that unless the Bible itself is first confirmed to be official - perhaps a Gutenberg blessed by the Pope or something. Or a Dead Sea Scroll.

How about if the bearer is cloaked in the Shroud of Turin? (Or has that thing finally been formally debunked?)

I was serious, but I thought Men-a-Vision was in Los Angeles. Oh well. If they were stationed in Taiwan, then this game is a bit more of a pirate than a true US release, IMO.

Well the box says Los Angeles on the back and they may have indeed had some base of operations/distribution there, but they were definitely operating under the radar if so (no records with the state of California), and it appears the game had origins in Taiwan (which isn't exactly a shock since that's where 90% of the pirate hacks and other junk came from).

They had to get the games into the country somehow though, so I suppose L.A. is as good as anywhere. But obviously either not many copies did make it over here, or most of them were lost/stolen/destroyed, since less than 20 copies of the game have turned up. All I know is, that blue T-handle that Men-A-Vision used for the Air Raid cartridges wasn't used by anyone else for any other games...someone paid a lot ($10,000+) to have that mold made and they sure didn't do it just to make 20 cartridges.

[megasdkirby]

Could the game only have been released to rental stores?

[TonyTheTiger]

All I know is, that blue T-handle that Men-A-Vision used for the Air Raid cartridges wasn't used by anyone else for any other games...someone paid a lot ($10,000+) to have that mold made and they sure didn't do it just to make 20 cartridges.

Which is probably the #1 most WTF part of the whole thing. I, too, find it inconceivable that a large company would have a custom mold made for so few copies let alone a small rinky dink mom & pop operation. But if that's the case then where the hell did all the copies go? A full run of a game doesn't just vanish. Maybe there's a crap load over in China somewhere and a handful of copies randomly made their way over here. Not by specific corporate intent but rather just through ordinary person to person trade.

But here's a question. It sounds like everybody knows of Men-A-Vision but nobody knows anything about it. How did anybody know what year the game was made? I mean, before the box that has 1982 printed on it. When did people think the game was made?

Also, is it possible the mold is just a happy accident that an unrelated item was conveniently well suited for a VCS cartridge? It happened fairly recently when Jaguars started showing up as dental equipment.

If there's one thing I'm skeptical of it's that this phantom Men-A-Vision was a real company targeting the U.S. market. I'm more inclined to believe a few Taiwanese homebrew/knockoffs/pirates whatever you want to call them by chance trickled over here or a few were intentionally brought over here by some random dude who then sold them off.